Through 47 games of the 2026 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the best playoff odds at 91%. Click a team to pick the rest of its season.
AFC
| Team | Record | Proj W | Win Div | #1 Seed | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville JaguarsJaguars | 2-1 | 10.8 | 85% | 26% | 91% |
 Kansas City ChiefsChiefs | 3-0 | 10.6 | 48% | 21% | 84% |
 Buffalo BillsBills | 3-0 | 10.0 | 62% | 11% | 75% |
 Las Vegas RaidersRaiders | 3-0 | 10.0 | 30% | 12% | 70% |
 Denver BroncosBroncos | 2-1 | 9.5 | 21% | 8% | 63% |
 Baltimore RavensRavens | 2-1 | 9.4 | 31% | 6% | 59% |
 Cleveland BrownsBrowns | 2-1 | 9.3 | 29% | 6% | 56% |
 Cincinnati BengalsBengals | 2-1 | 9.0 | 23% | 4% | 50% |
 New England PatriotsPatriots | 1-2 | 8.6 | 28% | 3% | 46% |
 Pittsburgh SteelersSteelers | 2-1 | 8.6 | 17% | 2% | 40% |
 Indianapolis ColtsColts | 1-2 | 7.9 | 11% | 1% | 27% |
 Houston TexansTexans | 0-3 | 6.9 | 4% | <1% | 12% |
 New York JetsJets | 1-2 | 6.7 | 5% | <1% | 11% |
 Miami DolphinsDolphins | 0-3 | 6.5 | 5% | <1% | 10% |
 Los Angeles ChargersChargers | 0-3 | 6.0 | 1% | <1% | 5% |
 Tennessee TitansTitans | 0-3 | 5.3 | 1% | <1% | 2% |
NFC
| Team | Record | Proj W | Win Div | #1 Seed | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota VikingsVikings | 3-0 | 11.1 | 62% | 31% | 89% |
 San Francisco 49ers49ers | 3-0 | 11.0 | 58% | 30% | 88% |
 Seattle SeahawksSeahawks | 2-1 | 9.8 | 28% | 12% | 70% |
 Chicago BearsBears | 1-1 | 9.6 | 23% | 9% | 65% |
 Philadelphia EaglesEagles | 2-0 | 9.1 | 45% | 5% | 56% |
 Carolina PanthersPanthers | 1-2 | 8.5 | 40% | 2% | 48% |
 Detroit LionsLions | 2-1 | 8.9 | 13% | 4% | 46% |
 Los Angeles RamsRams | 1-2 | 8.5 | 10% | 3% | 43% |
 New Orleans SaintsSaints | 1-2 | 8.2 | 33% | 1% | 41% |
 New York GiantsGiants | 2-1 | 8.2 | 23% | 1% | 33% |
 Dallas CowboysCowboys | 1-2 | 7.8 | 19% | 1% | 29% |
 Arizona CardinalsCardinals | 1-2 | 7.7 | 4% | 1% | 22% |
 Washington CommandersCommanders | 1-2 | 7.5 | 14% | 1% | 22% |
 Tampa Bay BuccaneersBuccaneers | 0-3 | 7.0 | 14% | <1% | 19% |
 Atlanta FalconsFalcons | 1-2 | 7.1 | 13% | <1% | 18% |
 Green Bay PackersPackers | 1-2 | 7.0 | 2% | <1% | 12% |
Odds come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Tiebreakers are approximated, so close races are estimates.
NFL playoff odds FAQ
How are these 2026 NFL playoff odds calculated?
Each team gets a rating from its point differential, adjusted for strength of schedule, blended with a little of last season and trusted more as games are played. We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times with the real schedule and home field, then seed each conference the NFL way: four division winners plus three wild cards.
How many NFL teams make the playoffs?
Fourteen: seven per conference. The four division winners are seeds 1 to 4 and three wild cards are seeds 5 to 7. Only the #1 seed in each conference gets a first-round bye.
How accurate are these odds?
Tested on the 2021 to 2025 seasons from weeks 3 through 15, the model was about 47% more accurate than giving every team the same chance (Brier score 0.131 vs 0.246). Tiebreakers are approximated, so treat close races as estimates.