How Playoff Odds Are Calculated

The short version

Every team's odds come from three ingredients: where it is projected to finish, where the playoff cut line is projected to fall, and how much season is left for those two numbers to move. The bigger the gap between a team's projection and the cut line, and the later in the season it is, the more certain the odds become. Everything is recomputed from live standings every five minutes.

NHL playoff odds, step by step

1. Project final points. A team's points pace (points per game so far) is extended over the full schedule: 84 games from 2026-27, 82 before that. A team at 1.20 points per game projects to about 101 points.
2. Find the cut lines. An NHL team qualifies by finishing top three in its division or as one of two conference wild cards. We project both thresholds from the current standings: the projected points of the third-place team in the division, and of the second wild card in the conference.
3. Convert the gap to a probability. The difference between the team's projection and each cut line runs through a logistic (S-shaped) curve. At the cut line the odds are 50%; a few points either side moves them quickly; far above or below, the curve flattens toward 99% or 1%. The curve is steeper for the division path (fewer competitors) than for the wild card path (more), and it gets steeper as the season progresses, because there is less time for the standings to change.
4. Take the better path. The team's playoff probability is the higher of its division and wild card probabilities. Team pages show which path is active.
5. Position bonus. After 25 games, a team currently holding a playoff spot gets a small edge (up to 1.5 points shaved off the cut line by season's end), reflecting that incumbents are displaced less often than pace alone suggests.
6. Clinch and elimination. The NHL's official x/y/z/p clinch indicators set odds to 100%, and an "e" sets them to 0%. Until then, odds are capped at 99% and floored at 1%.

Stanley Cup odds on the bracket page use a separate series model: point percentage and goal differential set each team's strength, a logistic curve turns the strength gap into a single-game win probability adjusted for home ice, and a best-of-seven distribution turns that into series and championship probabilities.

MLB playoff odds, step by step

1. Estimate true talent. Win-loss record is noisy, so each team's underlying strength blends three signals: its actual win rate, its Pythagorean win rate from runs scored and allowed (which strips out luck in one-run games), and a regression-to-.500 prior that fades as the sample grows.
2. Project wins and cut lines. Projected wins extend the current pace over 162 games. The division cut line is the projection of the division leader (or runner-up if the team leads); the wild card cut line is the third wild card, or the first team out if the team is already in.
3. Model the rest of the season. Remaining games are treated as a binomial distribution around each team's true-talent rate. That gives the probability of finishing ahead of any given rival. Division odds are the joint probability of finishing ahead of every division rival; wild card odds compare the team to the bubble rival it needs to beat or hold off.
4. Take the better path, apply official status. As in the NHL, the playoff probability is the higher of the division and wild card paths, clamped to 1-99% until MLB's official clinch or elimination status makes it 100% or 0%.

How this compares to FanGraphs, MoneyPuck, and FiveThirtyEight

The best-known playoff odds are simulation models. FanGraphs (MLB) and MoneyPuck (NHL) simulate the remaining schedule thousands of times, game by game, using player-level projections, current depth charts, and home-field effects, then count how often each team makes it. FiveThirtyEight ran similar Elo-based simulations until its sports forecasts ended in 2023; the site itself closed in 2025, which is why searches for "538 playoff odds" no longer lead anywhere current.

Lindy's Five is a standings model. The practical differences:

In practice the models agree on who is in and who is out, and they converge as the season ends. Expect the largest gaps (often 5-15 percentage points) in the middle of the season on bubble teams with unusually hard or easy remaining schedules, or with major injuries a standings model cannot see.

What the odds do not account for

• Injuries, trades, and roster changes (only their effect on results, once it shows up in the standings).
• Remaining strength of schedule and home/away split.
• Tiebreakers. Regulation wins (NHL) and head-to-head records (MLB) are not modeled; a team exactly on the cut line shows 50%.
• Early-season noise. NHL odds need 5 games and MLB odds need 10 before the model engages; before that every team shows 50%.

Where the data comes from

Standings, schedules, scores, and clinch indicators come from the official NHL and MLB stats APIs and are refreshed every five minutes. Preseason "way-too-early" odds on team pages carry last season's final standings forward until the new season has enough games.

Frequently asked questions